Markets start the week digesting three shifts: Democratic wins in both chambers of Congress after the November 3 midterms, a near 14% slide in Brent to below $100, and a strong US jobs report, with payrolls up 165K against a consensus of roughly 59–65K, the unemployment rate down to 4.1% and December hike odds near 78%. The dollar was near a one-month low on Thursday before payrolls lifted it on Friday, and an AI-led equity selloff pulled Treasury yields lower and pushed Bitcoin toward $75,000. October US CPI on Tuesday is the next test for the Fed debate.
Closing prices, Friday, November 6: EUR/USD – 1.1140 | Brent – $97.75 | Gold – $4,079.50 | Silver – $51.97 | Bitcoin – $76,038 | Ethereum – $2,245.80
Key calendar, November 9–13: Tue 10 – US CPI (October); Wed 11 – US Veterans Day (bond markets closed); Thu 12 – UK Q3 GDP; Fri 13 – US PPI (October).
Instrument | Close, Nov 6 | Prev. week | Weekly change | Base case |
EUR/USD | 1.1140 | 1.1160 | −0.2% | 1.1050–1.1230 |
Brent | $97.75 | $113.10 | −13.6% | $92–$104 |
Gold | $4,079.50 | $3,884.90 | +5.0% | $3,950–$4,200 |
Silver | $51.97 | $49.14 | +5.8% | $49.50–$54.50 |
Bitcoin | $76,038 | $77,302 | −1.6% | $72,000–$80,000 |
Ethereum | $2,245.80 | $2,243.75 | +0.1% | $2,050–$2,400 |
EUR/USD
Closed at 1.1140 (prev. week 1.1160). The euro lost 0.2% on the week, weakening on Friday after strong US payrolls lifted December Fed hike odds to about 78%, even though the dollar had been near a one-month low earlier in the week.
Resistance: 1.1168 / 1.1223 / 1.1260 – Support: 1.1113 / 1.1050 / 1.1026
Baseline view: the pair stays pinned near the 1.1105–1.1170 zone while October CPI decides whether hike pricing firms or fades. A soft print could send it back toward 1.1223–1.1260, while a close below 1.1105 would open 1.1050 and 1.1026. Base case: 1.1050–1.1230.
Brent Crude Oil
Closed at $97.75 (prev. week $113.10). Brent fell 13.6% on the week, its biggest weekly drop since the Covid period, including a 9.2% plunge to $94.11 on Wednesday. An attack on a commercial vessel near the Strait of Hormuz lifted prices back toward $98 late in the week, but Brent stayed below $100.
Resistance: $100 / $105 / $113 – Support: $94 / $92.50 / $90
Baseline view: oil is consolidating after a sharp reset, with Hormuz headlines the main upside risk and easing inflation worries capping rallies. Holding $94 keeps a bounce toward $100–105 in play, while a break below the $94.11 Wednesday close opens $92.50. Base case: $92–$104.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Closed at $4,079.50 (prev. week $3,884.90). Gold gained 5.0% on the week, recovering from its one-year low at the start of the week as Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened after the midterms. It pulled back from $4,148 on Friday as the strong jobs data lifted hike expectations.
Resistance: $4,100 / $4,148 / $4,200 – Support: $4,000 / $3,950 / $3,870
Baseline view: constructive while the metal holds above $4,000, with CPI the swing factor. A hot print revives hike pricing and threatens the $4,000 shelf, while a soft print opens $4,148–4,200. Base case: $3,950–$4,200.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Closed at $51.97 (prev. week $49.14). Silver rose 5.8% on the week, moving back above $50 after sliding to its lowest level since November 2025 at the start of the week, and traded near $53 on Thursday before easing.
Resistance: $52.35 / $53.00 / $55.00 – Support: $51.00 / $50.00 / $48.86
Baseline view: silver follows gold with a higher beta, so moves in either direction are likely to be sharper. Holding $50 keeps the recovery intact, while a loss of that level would put the $48.86 low from November 2 back in view. Base case: $49.50–$54.50.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Closed at $76,038 (prev. week $77,302). Bitcoin lost 1.6% on the week and tested $75,000 as an AI-led equity selloff weighed on risk appetite and the strong payrolls report lifted Fed hike odds.
Resistance: $77,300 / $80,000 / $82,000 – Support: $75,000 / $72,000 / $68,000
Baseline view: $75,000 is the level to watch. A daily close below it puts the weekly low at risk and opens $72,000, while a recovery above $77,300 would ease the pressure. Base case: $72,000–$80,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Closed at $2,245.80 (prev. week $2,243.75). Ether was little changed on the week (+0.1%) after sliding to a three-month low during it, with its direction still tied to equities and risk appetite.
Resistance: $2,300 / $2,380 / $2,500 – Support: $2,200 / $2,050 / $2,000
Baseline view: as the higher-beta crypto asset, Ether is likely to extend any Bitcoin move. Support at $2,200 is the first test, while a recovery above $2,380 would be needed to signal stabilization. Base case: $2,050–$2,400.
Conclusion
The week ahead turns on October US CPI on Tuesday, which will either confirm or cool December Fed hike pricing after a strong payrolls report, and on whether the post-midterm move in the dollar and yields holds. Oil is the main geopolitical gauge after its sharp drop, and crypto remains tied to equities and fund flows. Closing prices on Friday, November 6, and base cases: EUR/USD 1.1140 (1.1050–1.1230); Brent $97.75 ($92–$104); Gold $4,079.50 ($3,950–$4,200); Silver $51.97 ($49.50–$54.50); Bitcoin $76,038 ($72,000–$80,000); Ethereum $2,245.80 ($2,050–$2,400).
NordFX Analytical Group
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