The past week was driven by two key factors: escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and stronger-than-expected US labor market data. The March Nonfarm Payrolls report reinforced the resilience of the US economy, supporting the dollar and pushing Treasury yields higher. At the same time, oil prices surged amid supply disruption concerns, adding inflationary pressure to global markets.
In the coming week, investor focus will shift to the FOMC meeting minutes and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on April 10, which may provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Markets remain highly sensitive to inflation expectations and geopolitical developments.
As of the close on Friday, April 04, 2026 (with some instruments reflecting Thursday’s last active session due to the Good Friday holiday), the key instruments were trading near the following levels:
EUR/USD – 1.1517
Brent – 109.03
Gold – 4,676.42 (spot)
Silver – 72.924
Bitcoin – 66,930
Ethereum – 2,053.49
These levels serve as baseline reference points for the forecast below.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair ended the week near 1.1517, losing upward momentum after an earlier recovery attempt. The US dollar strengthened on the back of robust employment data and rising Treasury yields, while geopolitical tensions further supported demand for safe-haven assets.
On the European side, economic signals remain mixed. While manufacturing activity showed signs of stabilization, rising input costs and supply-chain disruptions continue to pressure the outlook.
Resistance levels are located at 1.1550 and 1.1605. A sustained move above these levels could open the way toward 1.1630–1.1650.
Support levels are found at 1.1510 and 1.1480. A break below may lead to further decline toward 1.1445.
Baseline view: Neutral-to-bearish while the pair remains below 1.1550.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude closed near $109.03 in the last active session, marking a strong upward move driven by geopolitical risks and supply concerns. The oil market remains highly sensitive to developments surrounding the Middle East, with traders continuing to price in potential disruptions.
At the same time, elevated oil prices are feeding into inflation expectations, making energy a key driver of broader financial markets.
Resistance levels are at $111.00 and $114.00. A breakout above could push prices toward $118.00.
Support levels are located at $105.00 and $101.00. A breakdown below may lead to a decline toward $98.00.
Baseline view: Bullish while prices remain above $105.00, with volatility driven primarily by geopolitical headlines.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold remains near 4,676, balancing between safe-haven demand and pressure from a stronger US dollar and rising yields. While geopolitical tensions support the metal, higher real yields continue to limit upside potential.
The upcoming US CPI data may become a decisive factor: stronger inflation could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy, while easing inflation pressure could provide support for gold.
Resistance is located at 4,720 and 4,800. A breakout above may lead to a move toward 4,880.
Support levels are seen at 4,620 and 4,555. A break below could open the way toward 4,480.
Baseline view: Neutral within the 4,620–4,720 range, awaiting a macro-driven breakout.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver closed near 72.924 after a sharp correction earlier in the week, highlighting its higher volatility compared to gold. The metal continues to react to both inflation expectations and broader risk sentiment.
While industrial demand provides underlying support, rising yields and a stronger dollar may continue to cap gains in the near term.
Resistance levels are at 74.00 and 76.10. A move above may target 78.00.
Support is found at 71.95 and 69.60. A breakdown could lead to 67.70.
Baseline view: Neutral-to-bearish while below 74.00, with sensitivity to commodity and inflation trends.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin is trading near $66,930, remaining within a consolidation range after failing to break higher earlier in the week. The cryptocurrency market continues to reflect broader macro conditions, with risk sentiment, dollar strength, and yields playing a significant role.
The current structure suggests indecision, with neither bulls nor bears taking full control.
Resistance levels are located at $67,300 and $68,650. A breakout above may lead to recovery toward $70,000–71,300.
Support levels are seen at $66,280 and $65,770. A break below may expose $64,500.
Baseline view: Neutral within the $65,770–68,650 range.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Ethereum is trading near $2,053, showing weaker relative performance compared to Bitcoin. The asset remains below recent highs and continues to struggle with upside momentum.
Market sentiment remains cautious, and Ethereum is likely to follow broader crypto market direction, particularly Bitcoin’s behavior.
Resistance levels are at $2,075 and $2,140. A breakout above could lead to $2,165–2,200.
Support levels are at $2,042 and $2,018. A breakdown may extend losses toward $1,980.
Baseline view: Neutral-to-bearish while below $2,140.
Conclusion
The week ahead is expected to be driven by three primary factors: geopolitical developments, oil price dynamics, and US inflation data. Markets remain highly sensitive to any changes in these areas, with volatility likely to stay elevated.
Brent oil continues to act as a key macro indicator, while the US CPI report and FOMC minutes may significantly influence expectations for monetary policy. Currency, commodity, and cryptocurrency markets are all likely to remain interconnected through these macro drivers.
The baseline scenario suggests continued uncertainty and range-bound trading across most instruments, with potential breakouts depending on incoming macroeconomic signals.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
